The Dubai Draw is out and given the somewhat unexpected results of some of the ATP tournaments the past 2 weeks I feel quite a few upsets may be on the cards; so much so that I am unsure of most of my predictions. Roger Federer, the defending champion and seeded 2 here has fellow seeds 3, 5 and 6 in his half of the draw, meaning he will have the opportunity to square off against Berdych, Tsonga or Tipsarevic respectively. Here is the draw.
Before that however, Federer kicks off his Round 1 match against wildcard Malek Jaziri whom he has never faced before. Should he get through, he will face the winner of Granollers and Montanes and given Granollers’ poor form as of late, it could easily be Montanes vs. Federer in Round 2. The top half of his quarter is very interesting with Tipsarevic vs. Davydenko and Tomic vs. Hanescu. Tipsarevic has not been doing well while Davydenko has had a good start to the year so I honestly can’t call that one. In the other match, Tomic should emerge the winner if his latest form is to be believed. If so, I can see Tomic even taking out Tipsarevic or Davydenko depending on the day form of either of these veterans (especially given their Round 1 match which should be hard fought). This means I am somewhat incredulously calling Federer’s QF opponent to be Tomic but I seriously will not be surprised if it’s Tipsarevic or Davydenko as well.
If Roger can reach the SFs, he will in all likelihood face either Jo-Wilfried or Berdych. I am always wary about Berdych so in that sense I would hope he faces Tsonga but except for that blip in Rotterdam, he’s been doing well so far this year so he won’t be an easy opponent. If Roger can then reach the final he is sure to face Djokovic unless something goes horribly wrong in that half of the draw. But I don’t foresee Seppi or Youzhny (seeds 7 and 8) to cause Novak any problems at all. That leaves 4th seed Delpo but the information trickling out of the Marseille Open indicates that Delpo has suffered a thigh injury and it might not recover or hold up long enough to thwart Djokovic.
The reason why I can’t call the final (should Roger reach it) is the same reason why I am not entirely sure Roger will even reach the finals; and that’s because I have no idea what form he is in coming into this tournament. After crashing out against Benneteau in Rotterdam, there were reports that his back was acting up and if that problem is still there, then I could see him not get past the QFs just like in Rotterdam. On the other hand, a fully fit, injury-free Roger would require me to do some recalculations and if the Swiss is in top form, a successful defense is certainly possible. Furthermore, given that Novak is coming off of an extended break himself he just maybe a bit rusty (one can hope right?).
So in conclusion, I would say I actually can’t make confident picks for Roger for Dubai right now. It all depends on his health and fitness. All we know for sure is there will be some highly interesting matches in all the rounds so we’re definitely in for a week of high quality tennis. My fingers are crossed for Roger to be back in top form. It hurts to see him in pain and having obvious issues with his movement like he did in Rotterdam. So here’s hoping that the 10 day break was enough to let it subside and our Maestro will be able to play his beautiful tennis from beginning to end all the way to lifting that trophy.
rogerfedererfan 
February 23, 2013 at 8:27 pm
Well, it’s hard to say this time, isn’t it?!! I guess I first have to see him first. Serving, playing, moving… This time there is his family, there is the warmth, so those are all great conditions. But there might still be the back. Although leaving that alone as much as possible, has probably been a good decision.
The draw is not too bad I think. If he is in form and makes it to the semis (and to the final after), I think Berdy can be tricky because of the possible mental block that he can cause with Fed and Berdy always playing his best against him (for some silly reason). If it would be Tsonga, it all depends on Tsonga’s form too. And it’s not a GS, so less risky cause I always think Tsonga plays better at a GS. But we’ve seen upsets, surprises everything so far, this year, so I’m not going to do a 100% prediction either, so to speak… We’ll have to wait and see. And the waiting is, thankfully, not long now!!! Onwards and upwards, there we go. Allez!!
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February 25, 2013 at 5:30 am
Thanks again for reading and commenting! 😀 Well since I wrote the post, Tsonga pulled out a miraculous victory after facing championship point against Berdych. Tsonga has never been consistent though so either it could be that he’ll carry this form and confidence over to Dubai, or Berdych could be in a mean mood and just come out guns blazing for revenge. And we all know how he loves playing against Roger. All this still does not clarify any of my uncertainties because if Roger is at his best I firmly believe neither Jo nor Tsonga can handle him. I think we all sound like broken records now but we’ll just have to wait and see. Both those men served very well last night leading me to long for the time when Roger’s serves were unquestionable. Usually, once his serve goes, the rest of his game suffers so here’s hoping Roger’s back has recovered and he can send those serves over the net with pinpoint accuracy. I think Roger has one of the prettiest serving stances in history but part of what makes it beautiful is the big deep arch he makes with his back at the waist. That must be very hard to do with a back problem. I think in recent memory his serve was at it’s best at Cincy last year, which makes sense when you realize he won that tournament without being broken once. Anyway, I digress. We’ll see him in 9.5 hours now so not a long wait! Fingers crossed for Roger!
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